Polls misleading on Ugandan Election
In December last year, candidates to the 2006 presidential elections were nominated and after an initial theatrical performance,six people made it. Four parties namely; NRMO, FDC, UPC and DP and two independents got the green light to contest the vote.
As expected, the ruling movement, now NRMO will get its toughest opponent in FDC, a party largely seen as a splinter group of the movement.
As the electioneering bears on, pollsters are now heightening political temperatures by suggesting the outcomes of this election.
The dynamics of this election will be tougher than envisaged. It is difficult to point out the outcome at this instance for many reasons. I will proceed to enumerate a handfull.
But first, to the results of the just concluded poll. Actually, there were two polls, the one Daily Monitor reported and another by The Red Paper.
In both polls, the president was leading his opponents. The Redpaper poll showed that Museveni would win the elections by about 70% of the vote, implying that their would be no need for a second round. The problem with their poll is that it was a text message. It can not be told if this poll was subjected to stocastic procedures.
Yet the Daily Monitor report suggested a possibility of a run-off. Now, considering the Daily Monitor poll, the opposition’s strategy is right on track. Remember the G6 as they are known, decided to field their candidates in the first round with the objective of denying the incumbent an out right win.
The point in achieving that objective is for the G6 to crystallise support in their strongholds and fragment Museveni’s support base in the country. They would then coalesce under one candidate push Kaguta to the ropes and wrestling the key to state house. It is generally agreed that Besigye would be the choice of the G6 in the second round.
Now what is wrong with the poll figures and why they can be misleading. Considering the timing of the Daily Monitor report and the strategies various teams were using, it would surprise me if the poll results were otherwise.
So what strategies? The president begun his campaign in Luwero - ( He called it his political Mecca) then to Kampala. Remember the mayor of Kampala, John Ssebana Kizito, a man from Central Uganda (he was born in Luwero) is the Democratic Party candidate. Oh and did’ nt the son of Kaguta lampoon this man; blaming the rot of the city on John, even challenging him to a singing competition. Well, Ssebana’s handlers took the cue and polished his voice.
And what was FDC doing all this time? Well, they are well catered for. With the party leadership in court or rather preoccupied with court over treason and rape charges preferred by the state against Besigye, their election resource is stretched. One can safely say therefore that FDC has not been able to articulate their election agenda.
For the other parties namely DP and UPC, their party has been tremedously decimated over the years that for them, this election is about redefinition.
Other than the personality attacks that the elect Museveni task force is using at the moment, some of the issues he raises bond well with the man in the villagen and those on the fringes of life in urban areas.
Say, wealth creation, Universal Secondary Education and other populist agendas. Although little time is devoted to issues in this election, by and large, the people would listen to hope.
One point that many commentators leave out in regard to this election is the power of incumbency. The president is a single most important news item on our airwaves, screens, print, web pages and internet chat rooms, even small talk in bars and homes. He is thus covered 24 hours a day all over our world that recognition is garanteed.
What about the others? FDC has its fair share of publicity especially with the court proceedings against their candidate garnering much needed limelight. They release this a comes easy and cheap.
Back to numbers at rallies. Just look at a typical rally. Supporters from other electoral zones, people of whom fifty percent are children curious to see the candidate and enjoy a drink or so. When the crunch time is up, the actual voters at area may be about thirty percent.
All this cry about numbers is simply to earn a psychological advantage that a candidate is popular. And as some commentators are suggesting, they could be meant to prepare the public for the outcome; especially whwn the courts have to make a decision.
I think what the news media should be delving deeper than open news reporting. They ought to seek out on strategies that each camp is employing that escapes most our us. For example the structures of the individual campaigns. Let them enlighten us on the merits and strengths of each candidate
